WealthShape | Smarter Investing | Fiduciary Advice
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • How We Invest
    • Portfolios
  • Services
    • Wealth Management
    • Financial Planning
    • Retirement Plan Services
  • Blog
  • FAQ
  • Log In
  • Contact

Timing Isn't Everything

7/9/2019

 
Over the course of a summer, it’s not unusual for the stock market to be a topic of conversation at barbecues or other social gatherings. A neighbor or relative might ask about which investments are good at the moment. The lure of getting in at the right time or avoiding the next downturn may tempt even disciplined, long-term investors. The reality of successfully timing markets, however, isn’t as straightforward as it sounds.

OUTGUESSING THE MARKET IS DIFFICULT
Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the “right” time presents investors with substantial challenges. First and foremost, markets are fiercely competitive and adept at processing information. During 2018, a daily average of $462.8 billion in equity trading took place around the world.1 The combined effect of all this buying and selling is that available information, from economic data to investor preferences and so on, is quickly incorporated into market prices. Trying to time the market based on an article from this morning’s newspaper or a segment from financial television? It’s likely that information is already reflected in prices by the time an investor can react to it.

Dimensional recently studied the performance of actively managed mutual funds and found that even professional investors have difficulty beating the market: over the last 20 years, 77% of equity funds and 92% of fixed income funds failed to survive and outperform their benchmarks after costs.2
Attempting to buy individual stocks or make tactical asset allocation changes at exactly the
“right” time presents investors with substantial challenges.
Further complicating matters, for investors to have a shot at successfully timing the market, they must make the call to buy or sell stocks correctly not just once, but twice. Professor Robert Merton, a Nobel laureate, said it well in a recent interview with Dimensional: 

“Timing markets is the dream of everybody. Suppose I could verify that I’m a .700 hitter in calling market turns. That’s pretty good; you’d hire me right away. But to be a good market timer, you’ve got to do it twice. What if the chances of me getting it right were independent each time? They’re not. But if they were, that’s 0.7 times 0.7. That’s less than 50-50. So, market timing is horribly difficult to do.” 

Exhibit 1: Average Annualized Returns After New Market Highs
S&P 500, January 1926–December 2018 ​
Picture
TIME AND THE MARKET
The S&P 500 Index has logged an incredible decade. Should this result impact investors’ allocations to equities? Exhibit 1 suggests that new market highs have not been a harbinger of negative returns to come. The S&P 500 went on to provide positive average annualized returns over one, three, and five years following new market highs.
​

CONCLUSION
Outguessing markets is more difficult than many investors might think. While favorable timing is theoretically possible, there isn’t much evidence that it can be done reliably, even by professional investors. The positive news is that investors don’t need to be able to time markets to have a good investment experience. Over time, capital markets have rewarded investors who have taken a long-term perspective and remained disciplined in the face of short-term noise. By focusing on the things they can control (like having an appropriate asset allocation, diversification, and managing expenses, turnover, and taxes) investors can better position themselves to make the most of what capital markets have to offer. 
Appendix
Average Annualized Returns After New Market Highs: In US dollars. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. New market highs are defined as months ending with the market above all previous levels for the sample period. Annualized compound returns are computed for the relevant time periods subsequent to new market highs and averaged across all new market high observations. There were 1,115 observation months in the sample. January 1990–present: S&P 500 Total Returns Index. S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved. January 1926– December 1989; S&P 500 Total Return Index, Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation YearbookTM, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago. For illustrative purposes only. Index is not available for direct investment; therefore, its performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. There is always a risk that an investor may lose money. 
1. In US dollars. Source: Dimensional, using data from Bloomberg LP. Includes primary and secondary exchange trading volume globally for equities. ETFs and funds are excluded. Daily averages were computed by calculating the trading volume of each stock daily as the closing price multiplied by shares traded that day. All such trading volume is summed up and divided by 252 as an approximate number of annual trading days.
2. Mutual Fund Landscape 2019.

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks, including possible loss of principal. Investors should talk to their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. A long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This article is distributed for informational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services. Robert Merton provides consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. 

    By Tim Baker, CFP®

    Advice and investment design should rely on long term, proven evidence. This column is dedicated to helping investors across the country, from all walks of life to understand the benefits of disciplined investing and the importance of planning.

    Get the WealthShape Newsletter

    Archives

    March 2023
    October 2022
    July 2022
    May 2022
    February 2022
    November 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    March 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    June 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    September 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    September 2015

Phone: 860-837-0303
Message: info@wealthshape.com
WINDSOR
360 Bloomfield Ave 
3rd Floor 
Windsor, CT 06095
WEST HARTFORD
15 N Main St
​#100
West Hartford, CT 06107
SHELTON
One Reservoir Corporate Centre 
4 Research Dr - Suite 402 
Shelton, CT 06484
ROCKY HILL
175 Capital Boulevard 
4th Floor 
Rocky Hill, CT 06067
Schedule a Consultation
Get Our Newsletter
Home  I  Who We Are  I  How We Invest  I  Portfolios  I  Financial Planning  I  Financial Tools  I  Wealth Management  I  Retirement Plan Services  I  Blog  I  Contact  I  FAQ  I   Log In  I  Privacy Policy  I  Regulatory  & Disclosures
Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture

© 2023 WealthShape. All rights reserved. ​
Photos used under Creative Commons from GotCredit, jeffdjevdet
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • How We Invest
    • Portfolios
  • Services
    • Wealth Management
    • Financial Planning
    • Retirement Plan Services
  • Blog
  • FAQ
  • Log In
  • Contact