A top-heavy stock market with the largest 10 stocks accounting for over 20% of market capitalization and a marquee technology firm perched at No. 1? This sounds like a description of the current US stock market, dominated by Apple and the other FAANG stocks,1 but it is actually a reference to 1967, when IBM represented a larger portion of the market than Apple at the end of 2019 (5.8% vs. 4.1%).

As we see in Exhibit 1, it is not particularly unusual for the market to be concentrated in a handful of stocks. The combined market capitalization weight of the 10 largest stocks, just over 20% at the end of last year, has been higher in the past.

​Exhibit 1 Same Old Story 
Weight of largest stocks by market capitalization in US stock market, 1927–2019

Do you find it puzzling when a bleak economic report emerges from the press, only to be accompanied by a positive surge in the stock market? You’re not alone. The last few weeks have produced many examples of a stark contrast between stock market performance and economic indicators. So why the apparent disconnect?

Markets are forward-looking, meaning current asset prices reflect market participants’ aggregate expectations. Those expectations include whatever future economic developments are anticipated and their potential impact on cash flows, which are key to a stock’s value. For example, if the market expects the economic environment to weaken company cash flows, stock markets may react well in advance of when we observe the impact on cash flows, as expectations are embedded in prices. And the eventual direction of the stock market will depend on how the economic outcome compares to expectations. If things aren’t as bad as expected, poor economic news can be greeted with a positive stock reaction.

Looking Ahead
We can see this anticipatory nature of markets in action by looking at the relation between US gross domestic product (GDP) growth and equity premiums, or stock market returns in excess of one-month US Treasury bills. When annual US equity premiums are plotted against GDP growth for the same year (top panel of Exhibit 1), there is no discernable relation between the two. Changes in GDP have not been strongly related to simultaneous stock market returns.

It’s important to note that this result does not imply financial markets ignore macroeconomic data. After all, GDP encompasses several measures of the economy, not just corporate profits. However, while GDP may be an imprecise representation of the activities that ultimately drive stock prices, further analysis shows that is not the sole cause for the lack of relation between GDP growth and simultaneous equity premiums.

Plotting GDP growth against the previous year’s equity premium (bottom panel of Exhibit 1) reveals a noticeable relation. The positive trend in the data suggests market prices have in fact reacted to changes in GDP but have done so in advance of these economic developments coming to fruition. This result is consistent with markets pricing in their expectation of economic growth.


Exhibit 1 - Plot Development
US equity premium vs. GDP growth, 1930-2019

​That brings us to the latest news headline worrying some investors: the eventual fallout from increasingly large US government expenditures designed to ease the economic burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. Will these efforts ultimately create a financial burden for the US government that affects future stock returns?

The results in Exhibit 2 should help allay concerns over the debt level impacting equity market performance. When we sort countries each year on their debt-to-GDP for the prior year (top panel), average annual equity premiums have been slightly higher for high-debt countries than low-debt countries in both developed and emerging markets. However, the return differences’ small t-statistics—a measure of the precision of a value’s estimate – suggest these averages are not reliably different from one another.1

The top panel uses prior year debt-to-GDP data to sort countries into the high/low groups. But investors may be more focused on where they expect the debt to end up, rather than on where it’s been. In the bottom panel of Exhibit 2, we rank countries on debt-to-GDP at the end of the current year, assuming perfect foresight of end-of-year debt levels. Again, average equity premiums have been similar for high- and low-debt countries. Like the results for GDP growth, these results imply that markets have generally priced in expectations for future government debt.


Exhibit 2 - Debt Defying
Average equity premiums for countries sorted on debt

​MARKETS AT WORK
Macroeconomic variables and investment decisions are like frozen turkeys and deep fryers—caution should be exercised when combining the two. The results presented here are consistent with markets aggregating and processing vast sets of macroeconomic indicators and expectations for those indicators. By incorporating this information into market prices, we believe public capital markets effectively become the best available leading macroeconomic indicator.
​

With activity in many industries sharply curtailed in an effort to reduce the chances of spreading the coronavirus, some economists say a recession is inevitable, if one hasn’t already begun.1 From a markets perspective, we have already experienced a drop in stocks, as prices have likely incorporated the growing chance of recession. Investors may be tempted to abandon equities and go to cash because of perceptions of recessions and their impact. But across the two years that follow a recession’s onset, equities have a history of positive performance.
​
Data covering the past century’s 15 US recessions show that investors tended to be rewarded for sticking with stocks. Exhibit 1 shows that in 11 of the 15 instances, or 73% of the time, returns on stocks were positive two years after a recession began. The annualized market return for the two years following a recession’s start averaged 7.8%.

​Downturns, Then Upturns
Growth of wealth for the Fama/French Total US Market Research Index

​Recessions understandably trigger worries over how markets might perform. But history can be a comfort for investors wondering whether now may be the time to move out of stocks.

Over the past few weeks we've witnessed the global market reaction to uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus. The environment remains fluid with strongly positive and negative movements based on the latest developments. The situation can be unsettling both on a human level and from the perspective of how markets respond. The question is, what historical evidence do we have to provide rational guidance during times like these?

At WealthShape, it is a fundamental principle that markets are designed to handle uncertainty, processing information in real-time as it becomes available. We see this happening when markets decline sharply, as they have recently, as well as when they rise. Such declines can be distressing to any investor, but they are also a demonstration that the market is functioning as we would expect.

Market declines can occur when investors are forced to reassess expectations for the future. The expansion of the outbreak is causing worry among governments, companies, and individuals about the impact on the global economy. Apple announced earlier this month that it expected revenue to take a hit from problems making and selling products in China1. Australia’s prime minister has said the virus will likely become a global pandemic2, and other officials there warned of a serious blow to the country’s economy3. Airlines are preparing for the toll it will take on travel4. And these are just a few examples of how the impact of the coronavirus is being assessed.

Growth of $1 During Outbreaks
S&P 500 Composite Index

We plot the growth of $1 for the S&P 500® Composite Index in the months following the first reported cases of several outbreaks throughout history and show the ending value when the outbreak subsided. There is much uncertainty associated in determining the measurement periods and precise length of each outbreak. It’s impossible to disentangle the market effects of the outbreak itself from other economic forces. The sell-off across stock markets in recent days was attributed to fears surrounding the impact of the coronavirus but happens to coincide with valuation ratios on the high side relative to historical averages for equities. 

The market is clearly responding to new information as it becomes known, but the market is pricing in unknowns, too. As risk increases during a time of heightened uncertainty, so do the returns investors demand for bearing that risk, which pushes prices lower.

We can’t tell you when things will turn or by how much, but our expectation is that bearing today’s risk will be compensated with positive expected returns. That’s been a lesson of past health crises, such as the Ebola and swine-flu outbreaks earlier this century, and of market disruptions, such as the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Additionally, history has shown no reliable way to identify a market peak or bottom. These beliefs argue against making market moves based on fear or speculation, even as difficult and traumatic events transpire.

The Market’s Response to Crisis
Performance of a Balanced Strategy: 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds
Cumulative Total Return

This shows the performance of a balanced investment strategy following a few historical crises. Each crisis is labeled with the month and year that it occurred or peaked. The subsequent one-, three-, and five-year annualized returns start from the first day of the month following each crisis. Although a global investment strategy would have suffered losses immediately following most of these events, the financial markets recovered over time, as indicated by the positive five-year cumulative returns. Negative events such as these may tempt investors to flee the financial markets. But diversification and a long-term perspective can help investors apply discipline to ride out the storm.

Conclusion
In the mind of some investors, there is always a “crisis of the day” or potential major event looming that could mean the beginning of the next drop in markets. As we know, predicting future events correctly, or how the market will react to future events, is a difficult exercise. It is important to understand, however, that market volatility is a part of investing. To enjoy the benefit of higher potential returns, investors must be willing to accept increased uncertainty. A key part of a good long-term investment experience is being able to stay with your investment philosophy, even during tough times.

Financial planning combined with a well‑thought‑out, transparent investment approach can help people be better prepared to face uncertainty and improve their ability to stick with their plan and ultimately capture the long-term returns of capital markets. Amid the anxiety that accompanies developments surrounding the coronavirus, decades of financial science and long-term investing principles remain a strong guide.

Investors often see dividends as a way to generate income. But dividend strategies are not the only way to produce cash, and investors should be aware of the potential tradeoffs that accompany a focus on dividends.
​
For stockholders who own dividend-paying shares, those payments arrive on a schedule (quarterly, in many cases). The cash to fund a dividend must come from somewhere, however. We know the price of a stock is potentially influenced by all expected future cash flows to shareholders. If cash is paid today in the form of a dividend, the stock price—and total market capitalization—of the issuing company may therefore fall, as the hypothetical Portfolio A in Exhibit 1 shows. That means, all else being equal, an investor who receives a dividend may also be left with a less valuable equity holding.
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Exhibit 1: Pay, Your Way
Comparing methods of income generation

Cash Considerations
An alternative method of raising cash is to simply sell shares. Exhibit 1 compares the two methods of generating income by contrasting Portfolio A with the similarly valued hypothetical Portfolio B. While Portfolio A receives income through a dividend payout, Portfolio B generates it through a stock sale.
The investor in Portfolio A, in which a dividend is issued, ends up holding the same number of shares as were held prior to the dividend payout, but we assume that those shares have declined in value. The investor in Portfolio B holds a reduced number of shares that haven’t seen their value decrease as a result of a dividend payout. The two approaches arrive at the same place—both investors end up with $100 in cash and $1,900 in stock, notwithstanding potential trading costs or tax implications. But there are potential downsides to the dividend approach when contrasted with the stock-sale approach.
​
First, the average proportion of firms paying dividends in the US was about 52% from 1963 through 2019, meaning an investor focusing only on those stocks is missing out on nearly half of investible US companies. A second consideration is that a dividend’s value, while not subject to the same degree of fluctuation as a stock price, isn’t guaranteed. Just 10 years ago, more than half of dividend-paying firms cut or eliminated those payouts following the financial crisis. More recently, a company that had consistently paid dividends for more than a century, General Electric, slashed its payout to just one cent a share, and the UK’s Vodafone Group cut its full‑year dividend for the first time in two decades. Thirdly, investors may give up flexibility in terms of the timing and the size of the payout when they rely on company-issued dividends. With stock sales, an investor determines the amount and schedule of the income.

Total Return
When considering an investment, it is also important to assess total return, which accounts for capital appreciation (or loss) alongside dividend income. High dividend yields may not lead to high total returns. Exhibit 2 plots the trailing 12-month returns of S&P 500 Index constituents as of December 31, 2019, with each dot representing a company. It’s clear that companies with greater dividend yields, the dots located higher up the vertical axis, weren’t consistently those with a higher total return over that period.

Exhibit 2: Income Facts
Dividend yields and 12-month returns for S&P 500 firms as of December 31, 2019

​Income generation may be a priority for some investors, but other important investment considerations, such as diversification and flexibility, needn’t fall victim to that aim. While the use of stock sales instead of dividends to create cash flow may involve trading costs and tax considerations, those concerns may be offset by the benefits of investing in companies that don’t currently pay dividends. An approach focused on income derived through dividends may not be the most desirable choice when weighing broader investment goals.

Imagine it is early January 2010 and you are reading a review of the financial markets. Investors have been on a roller coaster over the past three years, living through the stress of the global financial crisis and market downturn of 2008–2009, then experiencing the recovery that began in March 2009 and is still going strong.

Investors who rode out the market’s slide are beginning to be rewarded. But the rebound is 10 months old, and markets have a long way to go to reach their previous highs. Opinions are mixed about what might unfold in the coming year. A December 2009 headline in the Wall Street Journal underscored the uncertainty: “Bull Market Shows Signs of Aging.”1 The publication pointed out that, although stocks have rallied and indices are on the rise, worries are mounting in some quarters that the market is running out of steam.

From the vantage point of early 2010, you may be wondering whether to stick with your investment plan or move into cash and wait for more evidence that the markets have recovered. Now, fast forward to today and consider what the global equity markets delivered to investors who stayed the course.

On a total return basis, global stocks more than doubled in value from 2010–2019, as Exhibit 1 shows. The MSCI All Country World IMI Index, which includes large and small cap stocks in developed and emerging markets, had a 10-year annualized return of 8.91%. From a growth-of-wealth standpoint, $10,000 invested in the stocks in the index at the beginning of 2010 would have grown to $23,473 by year-end 2019.

Exhibit 1: Growth of Wealth
MSCI All Country World IMI Index, January 2010–December 2019 

Despite positive annual market returns during most of the decade, investors had to process ever-present uncertainty arising from a host of events, including an unprecedented US credit rating downgrade, sovereign debt problems in Europe, negative interest rates, flattening yield curves, the Brexit vote, the 2016 US presidential election, recessions in Europe and Japan, slowing growth in China, trade wars, and geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, to name a few.

The decade also brought technological advances in electronic commerce and cloud computing, the global embrace of the smartphone and social media, increased automation and enhanced artificial intelligence, and new products like electric cars and early iterations of self-driving ones.

Looking back, you could conclude that the decade had its share of uncertainty—just like the decades before. But overall, the US equity market experienced moderate volatility compared with previous decades. Exhibit 2 displays this by looking at returns and standard deviation, where a higher standard deviation reflects wider market swings during that decade.

BENEFITS OF DIVERSIFICATION
Exhibit 2: Volatility in Perspective
S&P 500 Index annualized returns grouped by decade (1930–2019) 

Investors who committed to global diversification and to areas of the market associated with higher returns—small cap stocks and value stocks (i.e., stocks trading at low relative prices)—were challenged over the past decade. As shown in Exhibit 3, during the 2000s, investors were generally rewarded for holding emerging markets stocks and developed ex US stocks. During the 2010s, the US market outperformed developed ex US and emerging markets.

​The performance of value stocks vs. growth stocks (i.e., stocks trading at high relative prices), and small vs. large cap stocks, also varied between decades.

Exhibit 3: The Past Two Decades—2000s vs. 2010s
Annualized returns (%)

Small cap and value stocks outperformed large cap and growth stocks in the 2000s, while the 2010s produced mixed outcomes. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US and emerging markets but outperformed in the developed ex US market. Value underperformed growth in all three market regions. Despite underperforming large cap and growth in the US, small cap and value delivered 11.83% and 11.71%, respectively, for the decade.

Exhibit 4 shows the cumulative investment experience over both decades, with small cap and value stocks outperforming large cap and growth stocks, respectively, across the US, developed ex US, and emerging markets. The annualized 20-year returns illustrate how diversification can help investors ride out the extremes to pursue a positive longer-term outcome.

Over the past decade, global fixed income also posted returns that may have surprised some investors. In 2010, investors looking at historically low interest rates may have expected rising rates as financial markets and economies recovered from the crisis. But over the decade, short-term rates increased while long-term rates decreased. Realized term premiums were positive, as long-term bonds generally outperformed shorter-term bonds. Realized credit premiums were also positive, as lower-quality bonds generally outperformed higher-quality bonds.2

ENDURING PRINCIPLES
That brings us to now—January 2020. Stocks and bonds in the US, and in many other developed markets and emerging markets, logged strong returns last year. The US bull market is 10 years old, and current headlines can give investors other reasons to worry about the future—for example, a pushback on globalization, the effects of climate change, the limits of monetary policy, the fate of Brexit, and the vagaries of the 2020 US presidential race. And those are merely the known unknowns. Looking ahead, who can say what the next 10 years will bring? The only certainty is the decade will have its own set of surprises.

Here’s what we can learn from the past decade (and the ones that came before it): Despite all the change and uncertainty, the fundamentals of successful investing endured. Diversify across markets and asset groups to manage risks and pursue higher expected returns. Stay disciplined and maintain a long-term perspective. Take the daily news with a grain of salt and avoid reactive investment decisions based on fear or anxiety. Don’t try to predict future performance or time the markets. Instead, develop a sensible investment plan based on a strong philosophy—and stick with it.
​
Investors who follow these principles can have a better financial journey in any decade.

The year 2019 served up many examples of the unpredictability of markets.

Interest rates that US policy makers expected to rise fell instead. American consumers’ confidence weakened as the year began, and news headlines broadcast fears of an economic slowdown. But investors who moved onto the sidelines may have missed the gains in the US stock market. As of the end of October, the S&P 500 was up more than 20% for the year on a total-return basis. That puts it on course for the best showing since 2013 should that gain hold through December.

The Greek stock market swung from a 37% decline last year to a 37% advance this year.

Outside the US, Greece—the site of an economic crisis so dire some expected the country to abandon the euro earlier this decade, and a country whose equity market lost more than a third of its value last year—has had one of the most robust stock market performances among emerging economies in 2019. On top of that, Greece issued bonds at a negative nominal yield, which means investors paid for the privilege of lending the government cash.

Taken as a whole, it’s a reminder that the prediction game can be a losing one for investors.

Exhibit 1: Shifting Curves
Yields on US Treasuries of various maturities since the end of 2018

UP OR DOWN?
A closer look at interest rates and the bond market shows just how unpredictable asset performance can be. Going into 2019, Federal Reserve officials expected economic conditions to support raising a key interest rate benchmark twice. Instead, policy makers lowered it three times.

In the market for US Treasuries—where market participants set interest rates—the yield curve that tracks Treasuries inverted for the first time in more than 10 years, as seen in Exhibit 1. Some long-term yields fell below some short-term yields over the summer. What’s more, yields on medium- and long-term bonds were at historically low levels at the start of the year, but they fell even lower by the end of October. Investors who made moves based on the expectation yields would rise in 2019 may have been disappointed in how events ultimately transpired.

​Exhibit 2: Changes in the Ranks
Performance of equity markets in 23 developed and 24 emerging economies

TRADING PLACES
Events weren’t any easier to anticipate in the global equity markets, where no evident link appears between markets that performed well last year and those that have excelled this year, as Exhibit 2 shows.

Among the 23 developed market countries, only one country was a Top 5 performer for 2018 and 2019: the US. Last year’s strongest performing market— Finland—ranked 22nd this year through the end of October. Among emerging markets, Greece swung from a 37% decline last year to a 37% advance this year through the end of October.

PERENNIAL WISDOM
History has shown there’s no compelling or dependable way to forecast stock and bond movements, and 2019 was a case in point. Neither the mainstream prognostications nor the hindsight of recent strong performance predicted outcomes in 2019.
​
Rather than basing investment decisions on predictions of which way debt or equity markets are headed, a wiser strategy may be to hold a range of investments that focus on systematic and robust drivers of potential returns. Investors who were broadly diversified across asset classes and around the globe were in a position to potentially enjoy the returns that the markets delivered thus far in 2019. Last year, this year, next year—that approach is a timeless one.

The stocks commonly referred to by the FAANG moniker— Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google (now trading as Alphabet)—have posted impressive gains through the years, with all now worth many times their initial-public-offering prices. The notion of FAANG stocks as a powerful group holding sway over the markets has sunk its teeth into some investors. But how much of the market’s recent returns are attributable to FAANG stocks? And does their performance point to a change in the markets?

Exhibit 1: A Little Help from the FAANGs
Annualized US market compound returns with and without Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Alphabet (Google), 2009–2018

Over the 10 years through December 31, 2018, the US broad market returned an annualized 13.4%, as shown in Exhibit 1. Excluding FAANG stocks, the market returned 12.6%. The 0.8-percentage-point bump resulted from the FAANGs collectively averaging a 30.4% yearly return over the decade.
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Investors may be surprised to learn that it is actually common for a subset of stocks to drive a sizable portion of the overall market return. Exhibit 2 shows that excluding the top 10% of performers each year from 1994 to 2018 would have reduced global market performance from 7.2% to 2.9%. Further excluding the best 25% of performers would have turned a positive return into a relatively large negative return.

This lesson also applies to capturing the premiums associated with a company’s size and its price-to-book ratio. Research by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French (”Migration,” 2006) provides evidence that these premiums are driven in large part by a subset of stocks migrating across the market.

Exhibit 2: Weighing the Impact
Global stock market performance excluding top performers, 1994–2018

​Research has shown no reliable way to predict the top-performing stocks. Looking at the top 10% of stocks by performance each year since 1994, on average less than a fifth of that group has ranked in the top 10% the following year.

The tendency for strong market performance to be concentrated in a subset of stocks is therefore also a cautionary tale about the importance of diversification— investors with concentrated portfolios may actually miss out on the very stocks that deliver the best of what the market has to offer. An investment approach built around broad diversification can help achieve a more reliable outcome for investors over the long term—sharp acronym or not.
​

The first decade of the 21st century, and the second one that’s drawing to a close, have reinforced for investors some timeless market lessons: Returns can vary sharply from one period to another. Holding a broadly diversified portfolio can help smooth out the swings. And focusing on known drivers of higher expected returns can increase the potential for long‐term success. Having a sound strategy built on those principles - and sticking to it through good times and bad - can be a rewarding investment approach.
​
“THE LOST DECADE”?
Looking at a broad measure of the US stock market, such as the S&P 500, over the past 20 years, you could be forgiven for thinking of Charles Dickens: It was the best of times and the worst of times (see Exhibit 1). For US large cap stocks, the worst came first. The “lost decade” from January 2000 through December 2009 resulted in disappointing returns for many who were invested in the securities in the S&P 500. An index that had averaged more than 10% annualized returns before 2000 instead delivered less‐than‐average returns from the start of the decade to the end. Annualized returns for the S&P 500 during that market period were −0.95%. ​

Yet it was a good decade for investors who diversified their holdings globally beyond US large cap stocks and included other parts of the market with higher expected returns—companies with small market capitalizations or low relative price (value stocks). As Exhibit 2 shows, a range of indices across many other parts of the global market outperformed the S&P 500 during that time span.

​FLIPPING THE SCRIPT
The next period of nine‐plus years reveals quite a different story. It has looked more like best of times for the S&P 500, as the index, when viewed by total return, has more than tripled since the start of the decade in the bounce‐back from the global financial crisis. US large cap growth stocks have been some of the brightest stars during this span. Accordingly, from 2010 through the first half of 2019, many parts of the market that performed well during the previous decade haven’t been able to outperform the S&P 500, as Exhibit 3 displays. Since many of these asset classes haven’t kept pace with the S&P, these returns might cause some to question their allocation to the asset classes that drove positive returns during the 2000s. ​

THE CASE FOR GREAT EXPECTATIONS
It’s been stated many times that investors may want to take a long‐term perspective toward investing, and the performance of stock markets since 2000 supports this point of view. Over the past 19 1⁄2 years (see Exhibit 4), investing outside the US presented investors with opportunities to capture annualized returns that surpassed the S&P 500’s 5.65%, despite periods of underperformance, including the most recent nine‐plus years. Cumulative performance from 2000 through June 2019 also reflects the benefits of having a diversified portfolio that targets areas of the market with higher expected returns, such as small and value stocks. And it underscores the principle that longer time frames increase the likelihood of having a good investment experience.

​No one knows what the next 10 months will bring, much less the next 10 years. But maintaining patience and discipline, through the bad times and the good, puts investors in position to increase the likelihood of long‐term success. 

Further complicating matters, for investors to have a shot at successfully timing the market, they must make the call to buy or sell stocks correctly not just once, but twice. Professor Robert Merton, a Nobel laureate, said it well in a recent interview with Dimensional: 

“Timing markets is the dream of everybody. Suppose I could verify that I’m a .700 hitter in calling market turns. That’s pretty good; you’d hire me right away. But to be a good market timer, you’ve got to do it twice. What if the chances of me getting it right were independent each time? They’re not. But if they were, that’s 0.7 times 0.7. That’s less than 50-50. So, market timing is horribly difficult to do.” 

Exhibit 1: Average Annualized Returns After New Market Highs
S&P 500, January 1926–December 2018 ​

​“I knew the market was going to crash.” It’s a common investment expression that you’ve likely heard plenty of times. However, is there any reason to take such statements seriously? Hindsight bias has been deceiving investors for years. Once we’ve had time to digest information, it can often seem like yesterday’s news should have been more predictable. Perhaps the best way to avoid behavioral hazards is to first acknowledge that they exist. Recognizing what we really know versus what’s unknowable may be the single most important investment decision we ever make.

The history of stock markets is filled with ups and downs which after the fact appear to be easily identified. The huge leverage risk-taking by banking/investment and insurance firms leading up to the 2008 financial crisis is blatantly visible today. We’ve had the benefit of 10 years to reflect. Nobel prize-winning psychologist, Daniel Kahneman would say, it’s during this time of careful observation that hindsight creates an illusion of understanding. Essentially our brains screw up the timeline. Signs of danger appear more obvious after the fact than they were in real time.  

In 2008, a variety of dominoes had to fall on the way to peak awareness. When it became evident that the housing market was bolstered by bad loans with roots extending across the financial spectrum, markets reacted exactly as they should. They priced in the new information and the results were painful.

Investing in 20/20 hindsight can lead to an even more detrimental exercise in creating a misconception that future events are coming based on information that is wholly unknowable. This is evidenced by an unending flow of soothsaying from financial media outlets. A few examples:

​One Day later: October 21st 1987

​​One of the single best days in market history was October 21, 1987, only two days after the Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 was up 9.10%
​

So much time and energy focuses on things that are unknowable in the moment. News by definition is unpredictable. Therefore, any action taken as an investor must answer the following: “What are the chances that I know something that everyone else doesn’t? Furthermore, even if I do know something, how long will I be the only one? And finally, what are the chances that my information has already been incorporated into current market values?”
 
Today we carry more computing power in our pockets than all of NASA did when it put the first men on the moon in 1969. Needless to say, news travels at an incredible speed. By the time it reaches you and me, it’s almost a certainty that markets have already incorporated the latest news into prices. This simple fact demonstrates the value or lack thereof for opinions based on past events. Investors should remain conscious of the brain’s tendency to value “known information” as if it were “unknown.” By doing so, we can better combat the impacts of hindsight decision making.

What’s an investor to do?
It’s folly to suggest in retrospect that market prices were wrong because they were never perfect in the first place. Their primary role is to provide the best representation of all available information at the moment. It’s a far better exercise to follow the preponderance of evidence we know exists. Markets tend to be resilient to crisis over the long term and investors have historically been rewarded for maintaining behavioral discipline. Therefore, an accurate forecast of future events isn't a prerequisite for success.
​
​
The Market’s Response to Crisis
Performance of a Balanced Strategy: 60% Stocks, 40% Bonds (Cumulative Total Return)

Over the last several years, index funds have received increased attention from investors and the financial media.

Some have even made claims that the increased usage of index funds may be distorting market prices. For many, this argument hinges on the premise that indexing reduces the efficacy of price discovery. If index funds are becoming increasingly popular and investors are “blindly” buying an index’s underlying holdings, sufficient price discovery may not be happening in the market. But should the rise of index funds be a cause of concern for investors? Using data and reasoning, we can examine this assertion and help investors understand that markets continue to work, and investors can still rely on market prices despite the increased prevalence of indexing.

Many buyers and sellers
While the popularity of indexing has been increasing over time, index fund investors still make up a relatively small percentage of overall investors. For example, data from the Investment Company Institute shows that as of December 2017, 35% of total net assets in US mutual funds and ETFs were held by index funds, compared to 15% in December of 2007. Nevertheless, the majority of total fund assets (65%) were still managed by active mutual funds in 2017. As a percentage of total market value, index-based mutual funds and ETFs also remain relatively small. As shown in Exhibit 1, domestic index mutual funds and ETFs comprised only 13% of total US stock market capitalization in 2017.

Exhibit 1.    Investor Breakdown in the US Stock Market as a Percentage of Total US Stock Market Capitalization

​In this context, it should also be noted that many investors use nominally passive vehicles, such as ETFs, to engage in traditionally active trading. For example, while both a value index ETF and growth index ETF may be classified as index investments, investors may actively trade between these funds based on short-term expectations, needs, circumstances, or for other reasons. In fact, several index ETFs regularly rank among the most actively traded securities in the market.

Beyond mutual funds, there are many other participants in financial markets, including individual security buyers and sellers, such as actively managed pension funds, hedge funds, and insurance companies, just to name a few. Security prices reflect the viewpoints of all these investors, not just the population of mutual funds.

As Professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French point out in their blog post titled “Q&A: What if Everybody Indexed?”, the impact of an increase in indexed assets also depends to some extent on which market participants switch to indexing: “If misinformed and uninformed active investors (who make prices less efficient) turn passive, the efficiency of prices improves. If some informed active investors turn passive, prices tend to become less efficient. But the effect can be small if there is sufficient competition among remaining informed active investors. The answer also depends on the costs of uncovering and evaluating relevant knowable information. If the costs are low, then not much active investing is needed to get efficient prices.”
 
What’s the volume?
Trade volume data are another place to look for evidence of well-functioning markets. Exhibit 2 shows that despite the increased prevalence of index funds, annual equity market trading volumes have remained at similar levels over the past 10 years. This indicates that markets continue to facilitate price discovery at a large scale.

Exhibit 2.      Annual Global Equity Market Trading Volume, 2007–2018

​Besides secondary market trading, there are also other paths to price discovery through which new information can get incorporated into market prices. For example, companies themselves can impact prices by issuing stock and repurchasing shares. In 2018 alone, there were 1,633 initial public offerings, 3,492 seasoned equity offerings, and 4,148 buybacks around the world.3 The derivatives markets also help incorporate new information into market prices as the prices of those financial instruments are linked to the prices of underlying equities and bonds. On an average day in 2018, market participants traded over 1.5 million options contracts and $225 billion worth of equity futures.

Hypothesis in practice
Even though the historical empirical evidence suggests that the rise of indexing is unlikely to distort market prices, let’s consider the counterargument that the rise of indexing does distort markets and in turn causes prices to become less reliable. In this scenario, wouldn’t one expect stock-picking managers attempting to capture mispricing to have an increased rate of success over time?

Exhibit 3 shows little evidence that this has been the case. This chart shows the percentage of active managers that survive and beat their benchmarks over rolling three-year periods. These data show that there is no strong evidence of a link between the percentage of equity mutual fund assets in index funds and the percentage of active funds outperforming benchmark indices.

​Exhibit 3.      Active Manager Performance Has Not Improved
Percentage of Non-Index Equity Funds Outperforming for Three-Year Rolling Period, 2004–2018

Lastly, in a world where index funds bias prices, we should expect to see evidence of such an impact across an index fund’s holdings. In other words, there should be more uniformity in the returns for securities within the same index as inflows drive prices up uniformly (and outflows drive prices down). Taking the S&P 500 Index as an example, however, we see that this has not been the case. The S&P 500 is a widely tracked index with over $9.9 trillion USD indexed or benchmarked to the index and with indexed assets comprising approximately $3.4 trillion USD of this total. Exhibit 4 shows that in 2008, a year of large net outflows and an index return of –37.0%, the constituent returns ranged from 39% to –97%. This exhibit also shows that in 2017, a year of large net inflows and a positive index return of 21.8%, the constituent returns ranged from 133.7% to –50.3%. We would also expect that constituents with similar weighting in traditional market cap-weighted indices would have similar returns. In 2017, Amazon and General Electric returned 56.0% and –42.9%, respectively, despite each accounting for approximately 1.5% of the S&P 500 Index.

Exhibit 4.     Range of S&P 500 Index Constituent Returns

​Conclusion
Despite the increased popularity of index-based approaches, the data continue to support the idea that markets are working. Annual trading volume continues to be in line with prior years, indicating that market participant transactions are still driving price discovery. The majority of active mutual fund managers continue to underperform, suggesting that the rise of indexing has not made it easier to outguess market prices. Prices and returns of individual holdings within indices are not moving in lockstep with asset flows into index funds. Lastly, while naysayers will likely continue to point to indexing as a hidden danger in the market, it is important that investors keep in mind that index funds are still a small percentage of the diverse array of investor types. Investors can take comfort in knowing that markets are still functioning; willing buyers and sellers continue to meet and agree upon prices at which they desire to transact. It is also important to remember that while indexing has been a great financial innovation for many, it is only one solution in a large universe of different investment options.

A quick online search for “Dow rallies 500 points” yields a cascade of news stories with similar titles, as does a similar search for “Dow drops 500 points.” These types of headlines may make little sense to some investors, given that a “point” for the Dow and what it means to an individual’s portfolio may be unclear. The potential for misunderstanding also exists among even experienced market participants, given that index levels have risen over time and potential emotional anchors such as a 500-point move do not have the same impact on performance as they used to. With this in mind, we examine what a point move in the Dow means and the impact it may have on an investment portfolio.

IMPACT OF INDEX CONSTRUCTION
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was first calculated in 1896 and currently consists of 30 large cap US stocks. The Dow is a price-weighted index, which is different than more common market capitalization-weighted indices.1

An example may help put this difference in weighting methodology in perspective. Consider two companies that have a total market capitalization of $1,000. Company A has 1,000 shares outstanding that trade at $1 each, and Company B has 100 shares outstanding that trade at $10 each. In a market capitalization-weighted index, both companies would have the same weight since their total market caps are the same. However, in a price-weighted index, Company B would have a larger weight due to its higher stock price. This means that changes in Company B’s stock would be more impactful to a price-weighted index than they would be to a market cap-weighted index.

The relative advantages and disadvantages of these methodologies are interesting topics themselves, but the main purpose of discussing the differences in this context is to point out that design choices can have an impact on index performance. Investors should be aware of this impact when comparing their own portfolios’ performance to that of an index.

HEADLINES VS. REALITY
Movements in the Dow are often communicated in units known as points, which signify the change in the index level. Investors should be cautious when interpreting headlines that reference point movements, as a move of, say, 500 points in either direction is less meaningful now than in the past largely because the overall index level is higher today than it was many years ago.
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Exhibit 1 plots what a decline of this magnitude has meant in percentage terms over time. A 500-point drop in January 1985, when the Dow was near 1,300, equated to a nearly 39% loss. A 500-point drop in December 2003, when the Dow was near 10,000, meant a much smaller 5% decline in value. And a 500-point drop in early December 2018, when the Dow hovered near 25,000, resulted in a 2% loss.

HOW DOES THE DOW RELATE TO YOUR PORTFOLIO?
While the Dow and other indices are frequently interpreted as indicators of broader stock market performance, the stocks composing these indices may not be representative of an investor’s total portfolio. For context, the MSCI All Country World Investable Market Index (MSCI ACWI IMI) covers just over 8,700 large, mid, and small cap stocks in 23 developed and 24 emerging markets countries with a combined market cap of more than $50 trillion. The S&P 500 Index includes 505 large cap US stocks with approximately $23.8 trillion in combined market cap.2 The Dow is a collection of 30 large cap US stocks with a combined market cap of approximately $6.8 trillion.3

Even though the MSCI ACWI IMI, S&P 500, and Dow are all stock market indices, each one tracks different segments of the market, so their performance can differ significantly over time, as shown in Exhibit 2. Since 1995, the Dow has outperformed the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI IMI by an average of 0.5% and 3.3%, respectively (based on calendar year returns). However, relative performance in individual years can be much different. For example, in 1997, the Dow underperformed the S&P 500 by 8.4% but outperformed the MSCI ACWI IMI by 13.9%.
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It is also important to note that some investors may be concerned about other asset classes besides stocks. Depending on investor needs, a diversified portfolio may include a mix of global stocks, bonds, commodities, and any number of other assets not represented in a stock index. A portfolio’s performance should always be evaluated within the context of an investor’s specific goals. Understanding how a personal portfolio compares to broadly published indices like the Dow can give investors context about how headlines apply to their own situation.

CONCLUSION
News headlines are often written to grab attention. A headline publicizing a 500-point move in the Dow may trigger an emotional response and, depending on the direction, sound either exciting or ominous enough to warrant reading the article. However, after digging further, we can see that the insights such headlines offer may be limited, especially if investors hold portfolios designed and managed daily to meet their individual goals, needs, and preferences in a broadly diversified and cost-effective manner.
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When selecting strategies for their portfolios, investors are often tempted to seek out the latest and greatest investment opportunities. Over the years, these approaches have sought to capitalize on developments such as the perceived relative strength of particular geographic regions, technological changes in the economy, or the popularity of different natural resources. But long-term investors should be aware that letting short-term trends influence their investment approach may be counterproductive. As Nobel laureate Eugene Fama said, “There’s one robust new idea in finance that has investment implications maybe every 10 or 15 years, but there’s a marketing idea every week.”

WHAT’S HOT BECOMES WHAT’S NOT
Looking back at some investment fads over recent decades can illustrate how often trendy investment themes come and go. In the early 1990s, attention turned to the rising “Asian Tigers” of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. A decade later, much was written about the emergence of the “BRIC” countries of Brazil, Russia, India, and China and their new place in global markets. Similarly, funds targeting hot industries or trends have come into and fallen out of vogue. In the 1950s, the “Nifty Fifty” were all the rage. In the 1960s, “go‑go” stocks and funds piqued investor interest. Later in the 20th century, growing belief in the emergence of a “new economy” led to the creation of funds poised to make the most of the rising importance of information technology and telecommunication services. During the 2000s, 130/30 funds, which used leverage to sell short certain stocks while going long others, became increasingly popular. In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, “Black Swan” funds, “tail-risk-hedging” strategies, and “liquid alternatives” abounded. As investors reached for yield in a low interest rate environment in the following years, other funds sprang up that claimed to offer increased income generation, and new strategies like unconstrained bond funds proliferated. More recently, strategies focused on peer-to-peer lending, cryptocurrencies, and even cannabis cultivation and private space exploration have become more fashionable. In this environment, so-called “FAANG” stocks and concentrated exchange-traded funds with catchy ticker symbols have also garnered attention among investors.

THE FUND GRAVEYARD
Unsurprisingly, however, numerous funds across the investment landscape were launched over the years only to subsequently close and fade from investor memory. While economic, demographic, technological, and environmental trends shape the world we live in, public markets aggregate a vast amount of dispersed information and drive it into security prices. Any individual trying to outguess the market by constantly trading in and out of what’s hot is competing against the extraordinary collective wisdom of millions of buyers and sellers around the world.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to point out the fortune one could have amassed by making the right call on a specific industry, region, or individual security over a specific period. While these anecdotes can be entertaining, there is a wealth of compelling evidence that highlights the futility of attempting to identify mispricing in advance and profit from it.

It is important to remember that many investing fads, and indeed, most mutual funds, do not stand the test of time. A large proportion of funds fail to survive over the longer term. Of the 1,622 fixed income mutual funds in existence at the beginning of 2004, only 55% still existed at the end of 2018. Similarly, among equity mutual funds, only 51% of the 2,786 funds available to US-based investors at the beginning of 2004 endured.

WHAT AM I REALLY GETTING?
When confronted with choices about whether to add additional types of assets or strategies to a portfolio, it may be helpful to ask the following questions:

​1. What is this strategy claiming to provide that is not already in my portfolio?

2. If it is not in my portfolio, can I reasonably expect that including it or focusing on it will increase expected returns, reduce expected volatility, or help me achieve my investment goal?

3. Am I comfortable with the range of potential outcomes?

If investors are left with doubts after asking any of these questions, it may be wise to use caution before proceeding. Within equities, for example, a market portfolio offers the benefit of exposure to thousands of companies doing business around the world and broad diversification across industries, sectors, and countries. While there can be good reasons to deviate from a market portfolio, investors should understand the potential benefits and risks of doing so.
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In addition, there is no shortage of things investors can do to help contribute to a better investment experience. Working closely with a financial advisor can help individual investors create a plan that fits their needs and risk tolerance. Pursuing a globally diversified approach; managing expenses, turnover, and taxes; and staying disciplined through market volatility can help improve investors’ chances of achieving their long-term financial goals.

CONCLUSION
Fashionable investment approaches will come and go, but investors should remember that a long-term, disciplined investment approach based on robust research and implementation may be the most reliable path to success in the global capital markets.

As much as I value the unfettered access to information the internet provides, I recognize the potential harm that too much information can cause. Take, for example, a friend of mine, who was experiencing some troubling medical symptoms. Typing her symptoms into a search engine led to an evening of research and mounting consternation. By the end of the night, the vast quantity of unfiltered information led her to conclude that something was seriously wrong.

One of the key characteristics that distinguishes an expert is their ability to filter information and make increasingly refined distinctions about the situation at hand. For example, you might describe your troubling symptoms to a doctor simply as a pain in the chest, but a trained physician will be able to ask questions and test several hypotheses before reaching the conclusion that rather than having the cardiac arrest you suspected, you have something completely different. While many of us may have the capacity to elevate our understanding to a high level within a chosen field, reaching this point takes time, dedication, and experience.

My friend, having convinced herself that something was seriously wrong, booked an appointment with a physician. The doctor asked several pertinent questions, performed some straightforward tests, and recommended the following treatment plan: reassurance and education. Not surgery. Not drugs. But an understanding of why and how she had experienced her condition. The consultative nature of a relationship with a trusted professional—both when a situation arises and as we progress through life—is one of the key benefits that an expert can provide.

There are striking parallels with the work of a professional financial advisor. The first responsibility of the doctor or advisor is to understand the person they’re serving so that they can fully assess their situation. Once the plan is underway, the role of the professional is to monitor the person’s situation, evaluate if the course of action remains appropriate, and help to maintain the discipline required for the plan to work as intended.

Like my friend’s doctor, advisors may have experienced conversations with clients that are triggered by news reports or informed by unqualified sources. In some cases, all that is required to help put the client’s mind at ease is a reminder to focus on what is in their control as well as providing reassurance and (re)education that they have a financial plan in place that is helping them move toward their objectives. The benefits of working with the right advisor are demonstrated through the ability to both help clients pursue their financial goals and to help them have a positive experience along the way.

Trouble might arise when we confuse simple and complex conditions. Probably no harm is done when a person, recognizing the onset of a common cold, takes cold medicine, drinks plenty of fluids, and rests. But had my self-diagnosing friend not made an appointment with a specialist, and instead moved from self-diagnosis to self-medication, she may have caused herself real harm. Similarly, thinking that all aspects of your own financial situation can be handled through a basic internet search or casual conversation with a friend might result in a less than optimal financial outcome.
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Without the guidance of an advisor, the self-medicating investor might overreact to short-term market volatility by selling some of their investments. In doing so, they risk missing out on some of the best days since there is no reliable way to predict when positive returns in equity markets will occur.1 One might think that missing a few days of strong returns would not make much difference over the long term. But, as illustrated in Exhibit 1, had an investor missed the 25 single best days in the world’s biggest equity market, the US, between 1990 and the end of 2017, their annualized return would have dropped from 9.81% to 4.53%. Such an outcome can have a major impact on an investor’s financial “treatment” plan.

For the five-year period ending October 31, 2018, the S&P 500 Index had an annualized return of 11.34% while the MSCI World ex USA Index returned 1.86%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 0.78%. As US stocks have outperformed international and emerging markets stocks over the last several years, some investors might be reconsidering the benefits of investing outside the US.

​While there are many reasons why a US-based investor may prefer a degree of home bias in their equity allocation, using return differences over a relatively short period as the sole input into this decision may result in missing opportunities that the global markets offer. While international and emerging markets stocks have delivered disappointing returns relative to the US over the last few years, it is important to remember that:

1. Non-US stocks help provide valuable diversification benefits. 2. Recent performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 

2. Recent performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. 

​
There’s a World of Opportunity in Equities
The global equity market is large and represents a world of investment opportunities. As shown in Exhibit 1, nearly half of the investment opportunities in global equity markets lie outside the US. Non-US stocks, including developed and emerging markets, account for 48% of world market capitalization and represent thousands of companies in countries all over the world. A portfolio investing solely within the US would not be exposed to the performance of those markets. 

Exhibit 1. World Equity Market Capitalization 

In addition, concentrating a portfolio in any one country can expose investors to large variations in returns. The difference between the best­ and worst‐performing countries can be significant. For example, since 1998, the average return of the best‐performing developed market country was approximately 44%, while the average return of the worst­ performing country was approximately –16%. Diversification means an investor’s portfolio is unlikely to be the best or worst performing relative to any individual country, but diversification also provides a means to achieve a more consistent outcome and more importantly helps reduce and manage catastrophic losses that can be associated with investing in just a small number of stocks or a single country. 
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A Diversified Approach
Over long periods of time, investors may benefit from consistent exposure in their portfolios to both US and non‐US equities. While both asset classes offer the potential to earn positive expected returns in the long run, they may perform quite differently over short periods. While the performance of different countries and asset classes will vary over time, there is no reliable evidence that this performance can be predicted in advance. An approach to equity investing that uses the global opportunity set available to investors can provide diversification benefits as well as potentially higher expected returns. 

​It’s almost Election Day in the US once again. For those who need a brief civics refresher, every two years the full US House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are up for reelection.

While the outcomes of the elections are uncertain, one thing we can count on is that plenty of opinions and prognostications will be floated in the days to come. In financial circles, this will almost assuredly include any potential for perceived impact on markets. But should long-term investors focus on midterm elections?

MARKETS WORK
We would caution investors against making short-term changes to a long-term plan to try to profit or avoid losses from changes in the political winds. For context, it is helpful to think of markets as a powerful information-processing machine. The combined impact of millions of investors placing billions of dollars’ worth of trades each day results in market prices that incorporate the aggregate expectations of those investors. This makes outguessing market prices consistently very difficult.[1] While surprises can and do happen in elections, the surprises don’t always lead to clear-cut outcomes for investors.

The 2016 presidential election serves as a recent example of this. There were a variety of opinions about how the election would impact markets, but many articles at the time posited that stocks would fall if Trump were elected.[1] The day following President Trump’s win, however, the S&P 500 Index closed 1.1% higher. So even if an investor would have correctly predicted the election outcome (which was not apparent in pre-election polling), there is no guarantee that they would have predicted the correct directional move, especially given the narrative at the time.
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But what about congressional elections? For the upcoming midterms, market strategists and news outlets are still likely to offer opinions on who will win and what impact it will have on markets. However, data for the stock market going back to 1926 shows that returns in months when midterm elections took place did not tend to be that different from returns in any other month.
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Exhibit 1 shows the frequency of monthly returns (expressed in 1% increments) for the S&P 500 Index from January 1926–August 2018. Each horizontal dash represents one month, and each vertical bar shows the cumulative number of months for which returns were within a given 1% range (e.g., the tallest bar shows all months where returns were between 1% and 2%). The blue and red horizontal lines represent months during which a midterm election was held, with red meaning Republicans won or maintained majorities in both chambers of Congress, and blue representing the same for Democrats. Striped boxes indicate mixed control, where one party controls the House of Representatives, and the other controls the Senate, while gray boxes represent non-election months. This graphic illustrates that election month returns were well within the typical range of returns, regardless of which party won the election. Results similarly appeared random when looking at all Congressional elections (midterm and presidential) and for annual returns (both the year of the election and the year after).

Exhibit 1. Midterm Elections and S&P 500 Index Returns, Histogram of Monthly Returns
January 1926–August 2018

​IN IT FOR THE LONG HAUL
While it can be easy to get distracted by month-to-month or even one-year returns, what really matters for long-term investors is how their wealth grows over longer periods of time. Exhibit 2 shows the hypothetical growth of wealth for an investor who put $1 in the S&P 500 Index in January 1926. Again, the chart lays out party control of Congress over time. And again, both parties have periods of significant growth and significant declines during their time of majority rule. However, there does not appear to be a pattern of stronger returns when any specific party is in control of Congress, or when there is mixed control for that matter. Markets have historically continued to provide returns over the long run irrespective of (and perhaps for those who are tired of hearing political ads, even in spite of) which party is in power at any given time.
 
Exhibit 2. Hypothetical Growth of $1 Invested in the S&P 500 Index and Party Control of Congress
January 1926–August 2018

​Equity markets can help investors grow their assets, and we believe investing is a long-term endeavor. Trying to make investment decisions based on the outcome of elections is unlikely to result in reliable excess returns for investors. At best, any positive outcome based on such a strategy will likely be the result of random luck. At worst, it can lead to costly mistakes. Accordingly, there is a strong case for investors to rely on patience and portfolio structure, rather than trying to outguess the market, to pursue investment returns. 

​What do attorneys, physiatrists, tax & financial professionals all have in common? While it may feel like a punchline is coming, what I’m referring to is what they offer. Their primary product is intellectual capital, something intangible that we can’t necessarily feel or touch. Patients/clients are tasked with quantifying the value of it. The question is: How? I could argue the following insight is applicable to lots of professions, but coming from a guy who runs a wealth management firm, I’ll keep this commentary on the financial side of the spectrum. Numerous studies have been conducted in an attempt to broadly measure the monetary benefits of working with an advisor. Here, I’ll walk through a simple critical thinking exercise, purely designed to help investors make informed decisions.

First, it’s important to point out the human element. Based on our experiences, we all have biases when it comes to interpreting value. Most of us possess situational skepticism’s thanks in part to a daily dosage of fly-by-night quick fixes, aimed at lightening our pockets. If you believe that all physiatrists are quacks, all lawyers are ambulance chasers, or all financial services professionals are salespeople, you probably have a preconception which will inevitably factor into how you value their advice.

Personal Due Diligence: A Litmus Test for Seeking Financial Advice

1. Do I have the experience to independently handle the complexities of my complete financial situation?
2. Do I have the time to research, apply, monitor and adjust my planning and investment portfolio?
3. Do I have the desire to do so?
4. Do I have the long-term discipline to independently make prudent decisions not based on emotion?
5. Finally, do I have confidence that a contingency (someone in place of me) has the experience, time, desire and discipline?

 
Let’s break those down a bit further.
 
Experience: The question really isn’t whether or not you can do it yourself. The question that’s more applicable is can you do it “well”? The biggest challenge I commonly see with do-it-yourself investors stems from understanding how and why financial planning and investment management are related. After analyzing thousands of portfolios through the years, here are some of the most common deficiencies in no particular order.

• A lack of relationship between asset allocation and long-term goals
• A thorough understanding of each position in the portfolio and how it interacts with other holdings
• True awareness of overall costs including internal expense ratios and trading fees
• An absence of appropriate levels of diversification needed to alleviate risk

Time: Markets and investment vehicles are constantly evolving. Therefore, investment portfolios should evolve as well. We’re always learning more about expected return and where it comes from. As we do, investment providers are quick to adapt, offering solutions with incremental improvements. The problem is, there’s lots of them. At last check, there were around 7,000 mutual funds and over 2,000 ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) in existence.

This underscores the importance of recognizing that financial planning isn’t a one-time thing but an ongoing event that requires adjustment with life events. Investments, taxation, insurance and estate planning all need to be working in concert. Collectively, this amounts to a lot more time than many realize, which often leads to a lack of attention.

Desire: Does the on-going, in-depth examination of your financial situation interest you or not? If you don’t enjoy working on cars, you’re probably not keen on repairing your own transmission. The concept of hiring professionals in different capacities effectively allows us to spend time doing what we enjoy, or what we do best.
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Discipline: This goes way beyond the idea of having someone there to hold your hand. Yes, psychology plays a role. However, discipline runs deeper than simply resisting reactions to every market movement. We know it applies to investing, but it must also apply to financial planning. Purchasing a home, having a child, changing jobs, marriage, college, retirement etc. are life events that require sound financial adjustments.
 
When it comes to managing your portfolio, the behavioral impact on investing is well documented. It’s easy enough to say, “disciplined investors have historically been rewarded for maintaining that discipline.” However, doing so requires not only a steady hand but also a dedicated understanding of capital markets and how a host of different scenarios affect your unique situation. We've been through around half a dozen bull and bear markets over the last 30 years. Needless to say, long-term investors are likely to experience a bunch of them over a lifetime. 

The history of mutual fund cash flows through the years paints a difficult picture for investor behavior. In 2008, we saw large outflows in equity mutual funds right around the bottom of the market. Subsequently, we saw positive cash flows in the ladder part of 2009 and into 2010 long after markets went into recovery mode. Remember the age old adage about being a successful investor “Buy Low, Sell High”? Well, the opposite often happens and emotional discipline is frequently the culprit.  

Contingency: Confidence in all of the above isn’t enough to ensure a favorable outcome. Many overlook the capacity of their heirs to make sound decisions in the event that they no longer can. Death, disability or incapacity impacts everyone. Prudence dictates an analysis of capable contingencies.

Professional Due Diligence: Aptitude, Delivery, Services, Comparatives
When weighing the value of financial advice, it’s critical to understand the substantial differences between types of financial advisors. Many lack the credentials or even legal authority qualify what they offer as advice in the first place. Brokers are not advisors and Fee-Based is not the same as Fee-Only. Here, I’ll focus on Fee-Only fiduciary advice, the industry standard for placing the clients’ interests first 100% of the time.

Aptitude: This encompasses the combination of experience, education, and reputation.
Experience: In finance, there’s little substitute for the seasoned experience an advisor receives through a variety of different market cycles and with a variety of different types of clients.
Education: Undergraduate business degree’s and MBA’s demonstrate a commitment to education. Industry designations such as CFP® (Certified Financial Planner) or CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) further indicate levels of expertise.
Reputation: Any due diligence should begin with a baseline evaluation of regulatory history (run a background check). Also, look for specific examples of expertise. Many advisors are active contributors to media outlets. Read columns or interviews to get insight into their investment philosophy or planning approach. Tip: Start with the firm’s website.

Services: Carefully understanding what’s included and what isn’t is essential because service offerings are all over the map. Does the advisor provide one-time financial planning services, ongoing investment management services, the combination of both? How much access do you have to professionals? What types of reports and online access do you receive?

Delivery: How do you want to interact with an advisor? There’s a cost to doing business. Face to face interaction is costlier than email, phone or video. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect a premium on face to face interaction.

Comparatives: After determining what’s included and what isn’t you can then analyze the market rate for these services.  Recent study

Conclusion
A comprehensive approach to quantifying value helps to diligently explore elements that often get overlooked. Investors should strive to understand themselves, their strengths and limitations before jumping straight into the evaluation of an advisory firm. Starting off with a basic Litmus test helps to solidify the rationale for seeking or not seeking advice. It’s about placing a timeline of personal due diligence in front of professional due diligence with the goal of making informed decisions.

​Our daily lives are crammed with punchlines and parables. Investing has a language of sayings and catchphrases of its own. Some encourage action, others espouse knowledge. This column highlights some of the more well known. Good, bad or indifferent.

The Hazardous
We begin with what Sir John Templeton called “The four most dangerous words in investing: 'this time it's different.’” There are different interpretations of the quote but most regularly it applies to ignoring history at your own peril. When in reference to the stock market, there’s always going to be unforeseen ups and downs but overtime more ups than downs. Long term disciplined investors have historically been rewarded for maintaining that discipline despite the opinions of pundits and prognosticators.

Buy low, sell high. It’s probably the most simplistic expression, yet the most difficult in practical application. Namely, buying when things appear bleakest and selling when things look great isn’t exactly a natural human inclination. In fact, looking at equity mutual fund cash flows through the years, exactly the opposite is the tendency. The last market downturn saw massive outflows in 2008, reversing course in the ladder part of 2009 well after markets went into recovery mode.

I got in early. Usually, you see this in reference to a perceived new investment idea. The issue is, it’s almost impossible to quantify the statement thanks to the speed at which information travels and is incorporated into prices. Simply put, an investor really has no way of knowing if they got in early and should most often work under the assumption that prices reflect all available information. Similarly, “Buy the rumor, sell the news” speaks to speculation on what could happen, while failing to comprehend how much of the “rumor” has already been factored into current prices.

“I’m waiting for the pullback” suggests that prices in some way are inaccurate and an investor has the foresight to time the market perfectly in order to take advantage of a subsequent uptick. The perils of attempting to time the market are well documented. The problem is making a single accurate decision isn’t nearly good enough. To be a successful an investor would have to decide when to get in and when to get out multiple times over an investment lifetime.

The trend is your friend. That is of course until it’s not, meaning- keep buying when it appears to be going up and start selling when it goes down. One of the biggest mistakes investors make is failing to recognize that markets operate on “news” which by definition is unpredictable or else it wouldn’t be news. Essentially, there’s no way of knowing what is a trend and what isn’t.

It’s a market of stocks, not a stock market. This classic day trader proverb implies that you can always make money providing you pick the right stocks. The issue with stock speculation is the evidence of long term success isn’t remotely on the side of active traders.

Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered. This demonstrates an active trader’s mentality that superior skill can make money in any market, but only within the confines of their own greed. Again, we see speculation on when to get in and when to get out, a short term mentality that requires the daunting task of accurately identifying when a stock is over or underpriced.  

On the flip side: Here’s some of the wisest
I’d compare stock pickers to astrologers but I don’t want to bad mouth astrologers. Rarely at a loss for words, the father of modern finance and Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama speaks to the difficulties in identifying stock miss pricings. Based on decades of data, studies have shown that the average actively managed dollar is far more likely to underperform the average passively managed dollar.

Warren Buffet is probably the most quoted investor of our time with gems like “When the tide goes out, you see who’s swimming naked” in reference to having a lack of diversification in your portfolio when markets pull back. In these instances, concentrated exposures in any one specific investment can spell disaster for a portfolio. Other Buffet favorites include: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect” and “Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful" both speaking to the well-known emotional tendencies of investors. Above all, patience and levelheadedness are two attributes that investors should hold in the highest regard.

John Maynard Keynes’s famous line “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” has been used to describe a variety of scenarios not limited to the disposition of investors and the unpredictable nature of markets. We’ve been through five different bull and bear markets over the last 27 years, each with significant variations in how long they lasted.

Author of “The Intelligent Investor,” value investing pioneer Benjamin Graham spoke to "The investor's chief problem, even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself." Most investors have emotional attachments to hard earned money, which can lead to decisions that are detrimental to long term success. He also thought that “To be an investor you must be a believer in a better tomorrow.” It’s a basic prerequisite to believe that advancements in technology, standards of living, and ultimately profits will rise over time. Without this ideology, there would simply be no reason to invest.

Index Investing pioneer and Vanguard founder John Bogle provided some simplistic advice in reference to having all your exposure to stocks "If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks". It’s critical to thoroughly understand your risk tolerance for market fluctuation. As your exposure to stocks increases, generally speaking, so does the level of risk in your portfolio. An investor should never take more risk than they can sleep with at night.  

Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson felt "Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas." There’s a difference between investing and speculating. The whole idea of being an investor is to grow assets over the long term. Aligning long term investment growth with short term entertainment isn’t a heck of a lot different than gambling.

Finally, a few warnings about the wisdom of Wall Street and giving too much credence to media pundits. “There seems to be an unwritten rule on Wall Street: If you don’t understand it, then put your life savings into it.” - Peter Lynch
Many of the financial products coming out of Wall Street over the years are bought and sold on the premise of being the next hot thing. As rule of thumb, you should always know how your money is invested, complete with a thorough understanding of the potential risk, fee’s and liquidity associated with any investment vehicle.

And Ex-Daily show host John Stewart on the 2008 market downturn: “If I’d only followed CNBC’s advice, I’d have a million dollars today. Provided I’d started with a hundred million dollars.” Don’t’ put too much stock in the daily commentary from talking heads whose job is to keep you reading, listening or watching. Instead, focus on your unique situation and look for help from qualified professionals who have your best interest in mind.

It’s certainly not a comprehensive list but I hope you enjoyed it. The next time you hear one of these phrases remember to keep it in the proper context.

​This erosion of the real purchasing power of wealth is called inflation. Inflation is an important element of investing. In many cases, the reason for saving today is to support future spending. Therefore, keeping pace with inflation is a crucial goal for many investors. To help understand inflation’s impact on purchasing power, consider the following illustration of the effects of inflation over time. In 1916, nine cents would buy a quart of milk. Fifty years later, nine cents would only buy a small glass of milk. And more than 100 years later, nine cents would only buy about seven tablespoons of milk. How can investors potentially prevent this loss of purchasing power from inflation over time?

Investing for the long term and other “tips”
As the value of a dollar declines over time, investing can help grow wealth and preserve purchasing power. Investors should know that over the long haul stocks have historically outpaced inflation, but there have also been short-term stretches where this has not been the case. For example, during the 17-year period from 1966–1982, the return of the S&P 500 Index was 6.8% before inflation, but after adjusting for inflation it was 0%. Additionally, if we look at the period from 2000–2009, the so-called “lost decade,” the return of the S&P 500 Index dropped from –0.9% before inflation to –3.4% after inflation.
​
Despite some periods where stocks have failed to outpace inflation, one dollar invested in the S&P 500 Index in 1926, after accounting for inflation, would have grown to more than $500 of purchasing power at the end of 2017 and would have significantly outpaced inflation over the long run. The story for US Treasury bills (T-bills), however, is quite different. In many periods, T-bills were unable to keep pace with inflation, and an investor would have experienced an erosion of purchasing power. After adjusting for inflation, one dollar invested in T-bills in 1926 would have grown to only $1.51 at the end of 2017.

While stocks are more volatile than T-bills, they have also been more likely to outpace inflation over long periods. The lesson here is that volatility is not the only type of risk that should concern investors. Ultimately, many investors may need to have some of their allocation in growth investments that outpace inflation to maintain their standard of living and grow their wealth.

One additional tool available to investors who are concerned about both stock market volatility and inflation are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). TIPS are guaranteed by the US Treasury and as such are considered by the marketplace to have low risk of default. The Treasury issues TIPS with a variety of maturities, and these securities are easily bought and sold. Unlike traditional Treasury securities such as T-bills, TIPS are indexed to inflation to protect investors from an erosion in purchasing power. As inflation (measured by the consumer price index) rises, so does the par value of TIPS, while the interest rate remains fixed. This means that if inflation unexpectedly rises, the purchasing power of any principal invested in TIPS should also increase.[1] Although they may not offer the long-term growth opportunities that stocks do, their structure makes TIPS an effective risk management tool for investors who are concerned with managing uncertainty around future purchasing power.

Conclusion
Inflation is an important consideration for many long-term investors. By combining the right mix of growth and risk management assets, investors may be able to blunt the effects of inflation and grow their wealth over time. Remember, however, that inflation is only one consideration among many that investors must contend with when building a portfolio for the future. The right mix of assets for any investor will depend upon that investor’s unique goals and needs. A financial advisor can help investors weigh the impact of inflation and other important considerations when preparing and investing for the future.

​Disappearing Funds
The size of the mutual fund landscape masks the fact that many funds disappear each year, often due to poor investment performance. Investors may be surprised by how many mutual funds become obsolete over time. About half of the equity and fixed income funds were no longer available after 15 years.
 
Including these non-surviving funds in the sample is an important part of assessing mutual fund manager performance. The evidence suggests that only a low percentage of funds in the original sample were “winners”—defined as those that both survived and outperformed benchmarks.
 
Both survival and outperformance rates tended to fall as the time horizon expands. For the 15‑year period through 2017, only 14% of equity funds survived and outperformed their benchmarks.

​This chart shows survivorship and outperformance for fixed income funds. Their survival rates were similar to those of equities for the same 5-, 10-, and 15-year periods. Over time, a declining percentage of fixed income funds from the beginning sample survived, and only a fraction of those surviving funds delivered winning performance.
 
For the 15-year period through 2017, only 13% of fixed income funds survived and outperformed their benchmarks. 

The Search for Persistence
Some investors may resort to using track records as a guide to selecting funds, reasoning that a manager’s past success is likely to continue in the future. Does this assumption pay off? The research offers evidence to the contrary.

The exhibit shows that among funds ranked in the top quartile (25%) based on previous three-year returns, a minority also ranked in the top quartile of returns over the following three-year period. This lack of persistence casts further doubt on the ability of managers to consistently gain an informational advantage on the market.

For example, in 2017, only 29% of equity funds were ranked in the top quartile of performance in their category in both the previous period (2012–2014) and subsequent period (2015–2017). Over the 12 years through 2017, top-quartile persistence of three-year performers averaged 26% for equity funds.

Some fund managers might be better than others, but track records alone may not provide enough insight to identify management skill. Stock and bond returns contain a lot of noise, and impressive track records may result from good luck. The assumption that strong past performance will continue often proves faulty, potentially leaving many investors disappointed.
​
Conclusion
The results of this study suggest that investors are best served by relying on market prices. Investment methods based on a manager’s ability to outguess market prices have resulted in underperformance for the vast majority of mutual funds.

Despite the evidence, many investors continue searching for winning mutual funds and look to past performance as the main criterion for evaluating a manager’s future potential. In their pursuit of returns, many investors surrender performance to high fees, high turnover, and other costs of owning the mutual funds.

We believe the underperformance of most US mutual funds highlights an important investment principle: The capital markets do a good job of pricing securities, which intensifies a fund’s challenge to beat its benchmark and other market participants. When fund managers charge high fees and trade frequently, they must overcome high cost barriers as they try to outperform the market.

​Choosing a long-term winner involves more than seeking out funds with a successful track record, as past performance offers no guarantee of a successful investment outcome in the future. Moreover, looking at past performance is only one way to evaluate a manager.

In the end, investors should consider other aspects of a mutual fund, such as underlying market philosophy, robustness in portfolio design, and attention to total costs, all of which are important to delivering a good investment experience and, ultimately, helping investors achieve their goals.

I get a lot of questions about income distribution during retirement. How much can I take? How should my assets be positioned? What types of assets produce the most income? Total return income planning is a holistic approach that takes into consideration your entire portfolio, focusing on the primary drivers of investment growth.

​The Determinants of Return
Obviously, we want our investment to grow over time. The principal we contribute, either initially or periodically through the years serves as the basis for future growth. Return on investment is determined by the combination of interest received from fixed income instruments (bonds, cd’s, money market accounts), stock profit sharing (otherwise known as dividends) and lastly by the gains or appreciation in value. When the time comes to begin generating income from investments, a total return approach looks holistically at the entire picture to systematically deliver an ongoing income stream.

Income Requirements
First, it’s essential to determine how much income is required, a question that cannot be answered without financial planning/analysis. In one form or another, it begins with figuring out expenses and cost of living during retirement. Next, comes integrating any recurring income from social security, pensions, annuities, etc. The difference between those two numbers represents a basic estimate of the income replacement needed from other investments. The simplicity of this example should not understate the potentially significant impact of things like taxation, inflation, and other estate planning considerations.

The next question: Can the principal value of my portfolio plus its future growth through interest, dividends and capital appreciation (i.e. total return) make up the difference? Answer: “It depends.”

Total return income planning incorporates a future expected rate of return to a portfolio which is further defined as “all investment accounts and their overall allocation to equity/stock and fixed income/bonds.” Lots of considerations come into play such as the total value, the equity to fixed income ratio; risk/return characteristics etc. Behavior can also have an impact on returns. Therefore, none of these points matter if the portfolio doesn’t fit with the investor's risk tolerance.

The Act of Creating Income
To supplement the need for income, cash is made available on a periodic basis (usually monthly, quarterly, or annually), by placing trades in one or a variety of the accounts. Tax efficiency is often stressed when determining whether the funds come from Traditional IRA’s, 401(k)’s, Roth IRA’s, taxable Individual/Joint Brokerage accounts or a combination thereof.

The process of creating an ongoing income stream continues by following the same steps to replenish the funds needed for living expenses. It’s important to remember that today’s money won’t buy the same amount of goods/services as it will 10 years from now. Therefore, funds not required for current living expenses are efficiently left to grow in order to satisfy future inflation-adjusted income needs.

Conclusion
Growth and income may be the two most ambiguous financial terms that get thrown around. Total return essentially represents the most holistic incorporation of both. It provides the flexibility for both tax efficient distribution and unforeseen income needs. It also presents the opportunity to reduce cost, as opposed to many accurately maligned investment products containing multiple layers of hard-to-find fees and expenses.

​Check out this outstanding video illustrating the dangers of paying too much attention to financial media pundits. This comes from our partners at DFA, a company as dedicated to research and empirical evidence as we are.

​With stock indices continuing to set new highs, does this mean negative returns for stocks are on the horizon? When addressing this question, it is helpful to keep the following in mind:

• Every day, stocks have a positive expected return regardless of whether markets are at an all-time high or not.
• While expected returns are always positive, positive realized returns are never guaranteed and may deviate from expectations.

The reason we can expect positive returns, regardless of the current market level, is attributable to the mechanism by which markets set prices. Stock prices are the result of the interaction of many willing buyers and sellers. Current prices reflect the discounted value of future cash flows expected by those buyers and sellers. But, there is uncertainty around these future cash flows for stocks, and investors bear the risk of potential losses. If the buyer of a stock views the future cash flows as more uncertain, they will likely want to pay a lower price for the stock. They will only transact when the price reaches a level where they expect to earn a positive return. For these reasons, we expect stock market prices to be set to a level at which the required rate of return for investing in stocks is positive, whether the market is at a new high, a new low, or something in between. Otherwise, why would buyers in the marketplace willingly transact at a given price?

​History can help illustrate this point and show us that a market index reaching an all-time high has not necessarily provided actionable information for investors.

Exhibit 1 measures monthly closing levels of the S&P 500 Index from the beginning of 1926 to the end of 2017. Of the 1,103 months observed, almost one-third represented new closing highs for the index. This may not be surprising for some. Since markets generally tend to go up over time, new highs should be a relatively common occurrence. Considering this, it is worth posing the question: If prices increasing over time was a troubling development, what would be the point of investing at all?

​This data also shows that looking ahead on a one-, three-, and five-year basis, the percent of cases when the index was higher or lower after a new market high is about the same when compared to any other previous price level. In other words, positive and negative returns tended to make up a similar proportion of returns after the fact, regardless of whether a new high was reached or not. For example, for a three-year look-ahead period, the index was higher around 84% of the time both after hitting a new closing high as well as after any other previous level. Additionally, this data shows us that the average return experienced after those highs vs. any other level is also quite similar. For example, for the three-year look-ahead period, the average cumulative return after a new high was 51.1% vs. 51.8% for any other level. These results indicate that new index highs have historically not been useful predictors of future returns.

Another reason investors should be cautious about reevaluating their approach at an all-time high is the potential opportunity cost of switching in and out of the market. Last year, the S&P 500 Index returned more than 20%, and yet 2017 started with three new market highs during the first 20 trading sessions.[1] The opportunity cost paid by investors reacting to the new highs by selling stocks could have been substantial. There is no reliable way to predict when stock returns will be positive or negative, and while the long-term average return of the US stock market[2] has been around 10% since 1926, year-to-year results often deviate markedly from the historical average.[3] Investors looking to capture what the equity markets offer over the long term are likely well served by sticking with their approach rather than making changes based on short-term noise.
​
Conclusion
The question of whether new market highs portend a fall in stocks can often be translated to another, more general question: “Is now a good time for me to be invested?” The evidence suggests that the current state of the market is not helpful in answering this question. Rather, an appropriate answer is highly dependent upon an investor’s unique situation and their risk and return objectives. For investors concluding stock market exposure is appropriate, a disciplined approach with a long-term view is likely a more prudent course of action than reacting to new market highs.
​

​
Source: Dimensional Fund Advisors LP.
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss.
There is no guarantee investment strategies will be successful. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Investors should talk to their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision. There is always the risk that an investor may lose money. A long-term investment approach cannot guarantee a profit.
All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This article is distributed for informational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services. Investors should talk to their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision.
[1]. S&P 500 Index data © 2018 Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
[2] As measured by the S&P 500 Index.
[3]. For more on this topic, please see “The Uncommon Average” from October 2017. 

NINE EXPERTS
Each January, a well-known financial publication invites a group of experienced investment professionals to New York for a lengthy roundtable discussion of the investment outlook for the year ahead. The nine panelists have spent their careers studying companies and poring over economic statistics to find the most rewarding investment opportunities around the globe.

Ahead of 2017, the authors of the publication’s report were struck by the “remarkably cohesive consensus” among the members of the group, who often find much to disagree about. Not one pro expressed strong enthusiasm for US stocks in the year ahead, two expected returns to be negative for the year, and the most optimistic forecast was for a total return of 7%. They also found little to like
in global markets, citing “gigantic geopolitical issues,” including a Chinese “debt bubble” and a “crisis” in the Italian banking system. 

The excerpts below summarizing the panel’s outlook presented a less than optimistic view of the year ahead in January 2017.

“This could be the year when the movie runs backwards: Inflation awakens. Bond yields reboot. Stocks stumble. Active management rules. And we haven’t even touched on the coming regime change in Washington.”1

The outcome of these predictions: Zero-for-four, although some might point out that at least they got the direction right regarding the inflation rate.

• Inflation barely budged, moving to 2.17% for the January–November 2017 period, up from 2.07% for the year in 2016.2
• The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note did not move up but instead slipped from 2.45% to 2.40%.
• Stocks moved broadly higher around the world, in some cases dramatically. Twenty out of 47 countries tracked by MSCI achieved total returns in excess of 30%.3 
• According to Morningstar, the average large blend mutual fund underperformed the S&P 500 Index by 1.39 percentage points, and the average small company fund underperformed the S&P 600 Index by 1.35 percentage points.

The above-mentioned panel was no aberration. Among 15 prominent investment strategists polled by USA TODAY, the average prediction for US stocks for 2017 was 4.4%, while the most optimistic was 10.4%.4 Expert or not, there is little evidence that accurate predictions about future events, as well as how the market will react to those events, can be achieved
on a consistent basis.

FOUR SURPRISES

• What do you get when you combine a tumultuous year for a new US president and divisive political trends in many global markets? Answer: a new record. For the first time since 1897, the total return for the US stock market (the CRSP 1-10 Index and, prior to 1926, the Dow Jones Industrial Average) was positive in every single month of the year. During the year, a great deal of media coverage was focused on markets at all-time highs, and some investors braced themselves for a sharp drop in stock prices. Not only did the much anticipated “correction” never occur, financial markets remained remarkably calm. Out of 254 trading days in 2017, the total return of the S&P 500 Index rose or fell over 1% only eight times. By comparison, in a more rambunctious year such as 1999, it did so 92 times.5
• North Korea issued threats of a nuclear missile strike throughout the year and boasted that even mainland US cities were vulnerable to its newest warheads. Next-door neighbor South Korea would seem to have the most to lose if such a catastrophe occurred, but Korean stocks were among the top performers in 2017, with a total return of 29.5% in local currency and 46.0% in US dollar terms.6
• To many experienced researchers, Chinese stocks appeared alarmingly vulnerable. A gloomy November 2016 article7 warned that “China’s debt addiction could lead to a financial crisis.” In the article, a prominent Wall Street strategist observed: “It’s scary that China seems to be continuing its debt binge to achieve its unrealistic growth targets.” And a global fund manager noted: “We are the most underweight China we have been since launching the fund five years ago.” The outcome: China was the third best-performing stock market in 2017 with a total return of 51.6% in local currency and 50.7% in US dollar terms.8
• The seven-year string of increasing US auto sales finally ended in 2017. Domestic sales fell 1.0% at Ford Motor, 1.3% at General Motors, and 10.7% at Fiat Chrysler.9 Anticipating the sales slump, a Wall Street Journal columnist warned investors in January 2017 to avoid the stocks.10 Good advice? Ford Motor had a total return of 8.7%, which was in fact below the 21.8% return of the S&P 500 Index. However, General Motors returned 22.5%, and Fiat Chrysler’s total return came in at an impressive 96.3%, even with more than a 10% drop in sales.11

While some of these examples may seem counterintuitive, the above “surprises” from 2017 reinforce the challenge of drawing a direct link between positive or negative events in the world and positive or negative returns in the stock market.

THE MILLION DOLLAR BET
Last year saw the conclusion of a 10-year wager between Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and Ted Seides, a New York hedge fund consultant. Seides responded to a public challenge issued by Buffett in 2007 regarding the merits of hedge funds relative to low-cost passive vehicles. The two men agreed to bet $1 million on the outcome of their respective investment strategies over the 10-year period from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2017. Buffett selected the S&P 500 Index, Seides selected five hedge funds, and the stakes were earmarked for the winner’s preferred charity. The terms were revised midway through the period by converting the sum invested in bonds to Berkshire Hathaway shares, so the final amount is reported to be in excess of $2.2 million.

The 10-year period included years of dramatic decline for the S&P 500 Index (–37.0% in 2008) as well as above-average gains (+32.4% in 2013), so there was ample opportunity for clever managers to attempt to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy through a successful timing strategy. For fans of hedge funds, however, the results were not encouraging. For the nine-year period from January 1, 2008, through December 31, 2016, the average of the five funds achieved a total return of 22.0% compared to 85.5% for the S&P 500 Index.12 (Results for 2017 have not yet been reported.)

Having fallen far behind after nine years, Seides graciously conceded defeat in mid-2017. But he pointed out in a May 2017 Bloomberg article that in the first 14 months of the bet, the S&P 500 Index declined roughly 50% while his basket of hedge funds declined less than half as much. He suggested that many investors bailed out of their S&P 500-type strategies in 2008 and never participated in the recovery. Hedge fund participants, he argued, “stood a much better chance of staying the course.” 

Seides makes a valid point—long run returns don’t matter if the strategy is abandoned along the way. And there is ample evidence that some mutual fund investors sold in late 2008 and missed out on substantial subsequent gains. But do hedge funds offer the best solution to this problem? We think educating investors about the unpredictability of capital market returns and the importance of appropriate asset allocation will likely prove more fruitful than paying fees to guess where markets are headed next. A hypothetical global diversified allocation of 60% equities and 40% fixed income13 still outperformed the hedge fund basket over the same nine years (56.6% vs. 22.0% in total returns).

Over any time period some managers will outperform index-type strategies, although most research studies find that the number is no greater than we would expect by chance. Advocates of active management often claim that this evidence does not concern them, since superior managers can be identified in advance by conducting a thorough assessment of manager skills. But this 10-year challenge offers additional evidence that investors will most likely find such efforts fail to improve their investment experience. 

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED
Financial markets surprised many investors in 2017, but then again they have a long history of surprising investors. For example, from 1926–2017, the annualized return for the S&P 500 Index was 10.2%. But returns in any single year were seldom close to this figure. They fell in a range between 8% and 12% only six times in the last 92 years but experienced gains or losses greater than 20% 40 times (34 gains, six losses). Investors should appreciate that many times realized returns may be far different from expected returns.

For a number of investors, 2017 was a paradox. The harder they tried to enhance their results by paying close attention to current events, the more likely they failed to capture the rate of return the capital markets offered.

New Year’s resolution: Keep informed on current events as a responsible citizen. Let the capital markets decide where returns will be generated.